The Oscar nominees are here, so Ryan and I had to chat about them all. While these aren’t necessarily our predictions, since that comes after careful consideration and evaluation of various oddsmakers, here is what we’re thinking.
Best picture:
- “Call Me by Your Name”
- “Darkest Hour”
- “Dunkirk”
- “Get Out”
- “Lady Bird”
- “Phantom Thread”
- “The Post”
- “The Shape of Water”
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Watson says: Nine? Nine??? All I could think was… Crap. Now I have to see Phantom Thread. That said, what a group of eclectic films. If we are going to have nine, glad we have a Get Out and a Shape of Water. Both nice genre films. I was wishing Wonder Woman would have snuck in there after the SAG nomination. And of course, I wasn’t expecting the best film of the year, Logan, to a nod. Way too early prediction is Shape of Water.
Ryan says: A lot of people are going to see some intense female masturbation thanks to Shape of Water‘s 13 nominations. I really wish the Academy had actually expanded into true genre films. Shape is fairly art house, and Get Out defies labels. I’ve only seen Get Out and it absolutely deserves the nomination, but I still keep hoping the field will be broader. I think the Billboards win it.
Lead actor:
- Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
- Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
- Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
- Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
- Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Watson says: Denzel? Really? When the talking points are “great performance in a terrible film” you usually don’t get nominated. But there was a spot open because Franco got the #MeToo ax. Great performance, but bad behavior has consequences…
Ryan says: Feels like this is Oldman’s to lose, but damn if I wouldn’t love it if Kaluuya won.
Watson replies: Kaluuya won this morning with the nod. Oldman in a walk.
Lead actress:
- Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
- Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
- Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
- Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Ryan says: Who could have predicted this list? Oh yeah. Everyone.
Watson says: No surprises for me and that’s just fine. By far this year’s strongest category. In fact it is the strongest group of female performances in years! And what a great year to do it. In a normal year, Jessica Chastain could have WON for Molly’s Game but didn’t even eke out a nomination. I think any of the five could win except probably Meryl. She was brilliant, but we holder her to a higher standard. Happy with whoever wins but pulling for Margot Robbie.
Supporting actor:
- Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
- Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
- Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
- Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Ryan says: They could call this category Rockwell and four other guys for all I care. He deserves it. Oh, and is the Plummer nomination just a big middle finger to Spacey?
Watson says: No Michael Stuhlbarg from Call Me By Your Name!?! Surprised. Sam Rockwell gets the heat, but I liked Woody Harrelson’s performance better. And yes, Ryan, that was a huge middle finger!
Supporting actress:
- Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
- Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
- Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
- Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
- Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Watson says: No Holly Hunter, Ryan! No Hong Chau! I honestly didn’t think Mary J Blige was good. Solid, but I didn’t notice her at all while watching as special.
Ryan says: Allison Janney is amazing and it’s hard to be upset that she was nominated and will win, but I am bummed about Holly Hunter not even getting nominated. She delivered the most amazing performance in Big Sick. But the Hunter wound has a Janney salve and I’m cool with that.
Best director:
- “Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
- “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
- “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
- “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
- “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro
Ryan says: So much pressure to give the award to Gerwig.
Watson says: Jordan Peele is a three time Oscar nominee? Awesome. No Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was a surprise since it has been the closest thing to a front runner. I’d be ok with any except PT Anderson. He is so dreadful.
Animated feature:
- “The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
- “The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
- “Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
- “Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
- “Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman
Watson says: Really weak year. I’m guessing CoCo but a forgettable slate.
Ryan says: Captain Underpants continues to be the film that the movie industry hates despite actually being good at what it does. It’s the Ben Affleck of animated movies.
Animated short:
- “Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
- “Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
- “Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
- “Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
- “Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer
Watson says: Kobe! Kobe! Kobe!
Ryan says: I actually thought there was one about premium Japanese steak when I saw your comment. Animated Short–continuing its decades-long tradition of being a category only 5 people care about every year. Which is telling because 9 people were nominated.
Adapted screenplay:
- “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
- “The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
- “Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
- “Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
- “Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Watson says: Logan sighting!!! A really decent field but no overwhelming favorite jumps out.
Ryan says: Disappointing list. Nothing incredibly exciting outside of Logan, which has no shot.
Original screenplay:
- “The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
- “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
- “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
- “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh
Watson says: Great year for my favorite category! 4 of the 5 were written by people of color or women.
Ryan says: Fantastic list this year. Really strong. I could make a case for any of them to win but, truly, I want Get Out to win so badly.
Watson replies: Because it is the only film you saw last year other than Captain Underpants.
Ryan sur-replies: Captain Underpants was fantastic.
Cinematography:
- “Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
- “Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
- “Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
- “Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
- “The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
Watson says: First female ever nominated for this category. Stunning but a great development. The cinematography in Darkest Hour was actually a negative for me. Surprised people liked it.
Ryan says: Does this mean I have to watch Mudbound now?
Watson Replies: No.
Best documentary feature:
- “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
- “Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
- “Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
- “Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
- “Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
Watson says:Future conversation in a Hollywood bistro:
Oscar Voter: “I am so excited for your film. I definitely voted for your beautiful doc, Icarus!”
Nominated Producer: Dude. I made ABACUS!”
Ryan says: Most years I’ve heard of at least one of these. Not this year.
Best documentary short subject:
- “Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
- “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
- “Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
- “Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
- “Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner
Ryan says: See documentary feature.
Watson says: I’m pulling for an upset by Mark Waltey and Dev Patel…
Let’s take a moment for a Watson commentary in the announcement ceremony. That was DREADFUL. The attempts to be infotainment at the announcements were a big fail. Watching Gal Gadot drink tea was more entertaining than announcers Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis and the Academy President. Back to the commentary.
Best live-action short film:
- “DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
- “The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
- “My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
- “The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
- “Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen
Watson says: I actually plan on seeing all of these in the special event at the Drafthouse. This is actually usually interesting.
Ryan says: That’s because you drink a lot before it.
Best foreign language film:
- “A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
- “The Insult” (Lebanon)
- “Loveless” (Russia)
- “On Body and Soul (Hungary)
- “The Square” (Sweden)
Watson says: Sweden finally does a Huey Lewis biopic. He’s second only to ABBA in Stockholm.
Ryan says: Great. Another vote for Russia to be involved in.
Film editing:
- “Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
- “Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
- “I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
- “The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory
Watson says: Dunkirk’s eclectic style and non-linear story telling lends itself to this category but so does I, Tonya!
Ryan says: Yawn.
Sound editing:
- “Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
- “Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
- “Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
- “The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
Watson says: Baby Driver!
Ryan says: Baby Driver will win this. Or the other sound award. I can’t keep them straight.
Sound mixing:
- “Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
- “Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
- “Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
- “The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick
Watson says: Still Baby Driver! The revenge of Kevin Spacey!
Ryan says: Baby Driver will win this. Or the other sound award. I can’t keep them straight.
Production design:
- “Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
- “Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
- “Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
- “Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
- “The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
Watson says: I got Bladerunner taking this one. It feels like they want to reward it at least once and this one certainly fits.
Ryan says: Can we all agree this is a weird award? Good.
Original score:
- “Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
- “Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
- “The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell
Watson says: The score in Dunkirk was the best thing about the film! Almost a character itself! Calling this one as a lock.
Ryan says: Shape of Water could be the dark horse (merman?) in this category. I only know the music from the trailer and that was pretty haunting.
Original song:
- “Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
- “Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
- “Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
- “Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
- “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Ryan says: This Is Me is an amazing, amazing song. Personally, I wish it had more to do with the movie it was in–truth is you could plug that song into a ton of movies and it works just as well. And it’s already a social media darling with lip syncs and performances being posted all over. Hard to beat.
Watson says: Mystery of Love is the runaway winner! That song was as critical to the mood of the film as the actors! I smell a coffee bet brewing! Heh. That’s TWO puns!
Makeup and hair:
- “Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
- “Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
- “Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten
Ryan says: Do you think the makeup and hair people are pissed they have to share one award while sound editing and mixing are probably done by the same people but get two awards?
Watson says: Darkest Hour, right? Do people KNOW that’s Commissioner Gordon???
Costume design:
- “Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
- “Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
- “Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
- “The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
- “Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle
Watson says:Shape of Water if Doug Jones’ suit is a costume and not makeup.
Ryan says: Phantom Thread is literally about clothes. How can it not win?
Visual effects:
- “Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
- “Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
- “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlon
- “War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
Ryan says: Holy crap. This is the best category of the entire show! GotG2 and Kong weren’t the strongest movies, but visually they did some truly impressive things (GotG2 opening titles, Kong battling the big skulleater, etc.). The other three also had amazing moments. Wow wow wow.
Watson says: I think Apes wins this as a makeup for the awful, awful snub for when Interstellar STOLE the Oscar from Apes 2! Need I remind you why?
Well, you should always close on monkeys…on horses…shooting machine guns, if possible. More Oscar discussion between now and the ceremony here on Gabbing Geek!
