Gabbing Geek Predicts the Oscars!

It’s Oscar day!  Usually my favorite day of the year!  Though it is an ecclectic year, I am not sure any of us are really that excited for the show.  Very little chance of a Clue reference in the monologue.  Some chance…but small.

Nonetheless, you expect predictions from Gabbing Geek and here we are.  I will give you my prediciton, tell you who SHOULD win, and maybe give a little commentary.  Then, because he is too lazy to write his own article, Ryan is gonna attach his picks to my article like the parasite he is.  Enjoy!

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”

“Darkest Hour”

“Dunkirk”

“Get Out”

“Lady Bird”

“Phantom Thread”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who Will Win:  The Shape of Water

Who Should Win: Get Out

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Logan

Watson Says:  What an interesting year!  It feels like we are at a turning point for Best Picture.  There are still some classic Oscar bait films that would have held court in the 90s (like The Post  or Darkest Hour, but none of those seem to be getting any traction.  Now, quirky films about monsters or suburban madness are the front runners.  Not sure why Logan didn’t make the cut.  It is a cinematic masterpiece and by far the Best Picture of the year.  We still have a ways to go.  

Ryan Says: Three Billboards is actually going to win, but I agree Get Out should have won.  Ten years from now Get Out will still be worth watching, not so much the others.

 

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Who Will Win:  Gary Oldman

Who Should Win:  Oldman

Who Should Have Been Nominated:  Hugh Jackman

Watson Says:  The film itself was ok, but Oldman was amazing.  He disappeared into the role.  Unless I had known it was Oldman, there is no way I could have told you Winston Churchill was played by Commissioner Gordon!  I don’t see anyone beating Oldman, but if an upset occurs I think it would be Chalamet.

Ryan Says: This category bores me.  I am bored.

 

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Who Will Win:  Frances McDormand

Who Should Win: Margot Robbie

Who Should Have Been Nominated:  I was really happy with this group

Watson Says:  I guess McDormand will win since she’s taken all the major awards leading up to tonight.  I’m not as impressed with the performance as others, but she did carry a tricky film.  In a perfect world, Margot Robbie takes this award.  She absolutely dominated as Tonya Harding.

Ryan Says: I thought Robbie showed potential with I, Tonya but her performance was pretty much exactly what you’d expect of someone playing Tonya Harding.  McDormand’s performance was haunting.

 

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”

Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”

Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who Will Win:  Sam Rockwell

Who Should Win: Woody Harrelson

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Armie Hammer

Watson Says:  This is the weakest I’ve seen this category in memory.  None of these guys would have contended for nomination in some years.  Unlike others, I did not like Rockwell’s performance.  But he was so good in The Way, Way Back that I will root for him as a make up for missing out on a nomination.

Ryan Says: I think the character Rockwell played, in anyone else’s hands, would have been a disaster.  He deserves it.

 

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win:  Allison Janney

Who Should Win: Allison Janney

Who Should Have Been Nominated:  Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Watson Says: It’s a two person race between Janney and Metcalf; two television alums making it big.  I think Janney wins because she had the meatier role as a nasty stage mom who ain’t above throwing knives.

Ryan Says: Yay CJ!

 

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan

“Get Out,” Jordan Peele

“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig

“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson

“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Who Will Win:  Guillermo del Toro

Who Should Win:  Jordan Peele

Who Should Have Been Nominated: James Mangold

Watson Says:  Christopher Nolan picked the wrong year to make his first straight forward film. As a director known for making quirky, twist filled dramas, his film is the most conventional in a year that is a negative.  Enter del Toro.  His bizarre fish out of water tale should net him Best Director unless former funny man Jordan Peele sneaks in and takes the prize.

Ryan Says: I am, again, bored.

 

Animated Feature:

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito

“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo

“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson

“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha

“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Who Will Win:  Coco

Who Should Win:  Coco

Watson Says: Did Boss Baby REALLY get a nominations???

Ryan Says: Why wasn’t Olaf’s Adventure nominated?

 

Animated Short:

“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant

“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon

“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray

“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata

“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

 

Who Will Win:  Dear Basketball

Watson Says:  Shaq is pulling for Lou

Ryan Says: AHEM.  OLAF’S MOTHER F*&@ING ADVENTURE?!?!?!

 

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory

“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber

“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green

“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin

“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Who Will Win:  Call Me By Your Name

Who Should Win:  Logan

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Hmm…Logan WAS nominated for this one and I am so used to typing Logan, I don’t know what to do…

Watson Says:  I need this win because I am counting on it to beat Ryan in a coffee bet.  The Disaster Artist would have been a contender, but Franco’s boorish behavior put a pall over the film.

Ryan Says: Anyone but Call Me.  Anyone but Call Me.  Anyone but Call Me.

 

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani

“Get Out,” Jordan Peele

“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig

“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Who Will Win:  Get Out

Who Should Win: Get Out

Watson Says:  I think this is a stone cold, lead pipe lock.  The word “Original” captures Get Out  better than anything.  Jordan Peele HAS to be recognized for his great film. This might be the best place to do it.  

Ryan Says: If Get Out doesn’t win…shudder.

 

Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins

“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel

“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema

“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison

“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Who Will Win:  Blade Runner 2049

Who Should Win:  Blade Runner

Who Should Have Been Nominated:  Logan

Watson Says:  Blade Runner tanked at the box office, but critics rightfully praised it.  It was an utterly beautiful film that should end Roger Deakins’  “Susan Lucci” status.  Darkest Hour  has been getting some praise, but I thought the camera work was actually a weakness of the film.  

Ryan Says: I think Dunkirk is going to win, actually.

 

Best Documentary Feature:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman

“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda

“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan

“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen

“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

 

Who Will Win:  Faces Places

Watson Says:  Really, just because it rhymes.  That is how I had to pick them!

Ryan Says: I’m more interested in seeing how far the winners have to walk to get to the stage and whether that counts against their speaking time.

 

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright

“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel

“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon

“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon

“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

 

Who Will Win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam of the 405

Watson Says: Big year for traffic themed documentary shorts.  I hope they don’t split the AAA vote.  

Ryan Says: Can they do this award during a commercial break?

 

Best Live Action Short Film:

“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk

“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson

“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.

“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton

“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

 

Who Will Win:  DeKalb Elementary

Watson Says: DeKalb, already a favorite for short film, could benefit from the current gun conversation.  The acceptance speech speaks for itself.

Ryan Says: Another commercial break.

 

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)

“The Insult” (Lebanon)

“Loveless” (Russia)

“On Body and Soul (Hungary)

“The Square” (Sweden)

Who Will Win:  A Fantastic Woman

Watson Says: The Sue Storm solo pic Jenny has been asking for!

Ryan Says: And just like The Invisible Woman, nobody saw her!

 

Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss

“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith

“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel

“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

Who Will Win:  Baby Driver

Watson Says:  Dunkirk is getting a lot of buzz because of the non-linear storytelling, but Baby Drivers quick cuts and chase sequences were a lot more impressive.

Ryan Says: That’s why it will win Film Mixing.

 

Sound Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater

“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green

“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King

“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

 

Who Will Win:  Baby Driver

Watson Says:  As the world’s foremost expert in Sound Editing, I can tell you for sure this is the finest the craft has to offer.

Ryan Says: WHAT?

 

Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin

“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill

“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo

“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

 

Who Will Win:  Baby Driver

Watson Says:  Oh, wait… it’s Sound Mixing where I am an expert.  Still…Baby Driver…

Ryan Says: I CAN’T HEAR YOU!

 

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer

“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola

“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis

“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

 

Who Will Win:  The Shape of Water

Watson Says: The sets look like a realistic cartoon.  All done with conventional design.  The set work is as strong a character as those played by Sally Hawkins or Doug Jones.

Ryan Says: Blade Runner’s best shot at something might give it a nod.

 

Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer

“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood

“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

 

Who Will Win:  The Shape of Water

Who Should Win:  Dunkirk

Watson Says:  I left Dunkirk thinking the score was the best character in the film.  The tension. The fear.  All started with Hans Zimmer.  Sadly, I think it loses out to Shape; which had an amazing score as well.

Ryan Says: Yeah, but John Williams!

 

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige

“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens

“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez

“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common

“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Who Will Win:  Remember Me

Who Should Win: Mystery of Love

Watson Says: I am good as long as This Is Me doesn’t win.  Coffee bet…

Ryan Says: Remember Me is one of the stupidest songs ever nominated.  It very well might win, but This Is Me is actually a good song.

 

Makeup and Hair:

“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick

“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard

“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

 

Who Will Win:  Darkest Hour

Watson Says: The award is handcuffed to Oldman’s Best Picture statue.  

Ryan Says: Look for Wonder to pull an upset.

 

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran

“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran

“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges

“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira

“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

 

Who Will Win:  Phantom Thread

Watson Says: It’s a movie ABOUT clothing design.  Suck ups!

Ryan Says: Watson doesn’t even know what Phantom Thread was about.  Ask him why.

 

Visual Effects:

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer

“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick

“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan

“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

Who Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Who Should Win:  Blade Runner

Watson Says: I think Blade Runner was better FX, but an Apes win serves as a makeup for the utter freaking screw job of the second film losing out to Interstellar.  I know they invented made some scientific discovery…Ryan…but let me remind you:  Monkeys…on horses….WITH MACHINE GUNS!

Ryan Says: Honestly, this is the tightest category of the whole night.  Apes should win for the trilogy, but as a standalone movie Kong may have actually had better effects.  But Kong suffered from not being all that great.  And Jedi does have a shot.