Let’s face it. 2018 was a weak year in film.
As you’ll see from my annual countdown, I liked some films but there were no all-time classics. No contenders for the Watson Top 25. Beyond even favorites, it was particularly weak for Oscar bait. There was not one film this year that stands worthy of Best Picture.
I understand the knock on Oscars being snooty…but I AM snooty too! So, I typically think the Oscars honors a laudable film. This year? Not so much.
Forget about getting it wrong. The Oscars have no chance of that, because there is no RIGHT answer! This might be the right year to do a show without a host, because there aren’t any worthy Beat Picture candidates for the host to present.
With that uplifting intro, here are my predictions…
Best picture:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Who Will Win: Green Book is the closest thing we have, so that’s my pick. I liked most of these films, but none of them will stand the test of time as a complete “best” film. All have a significant weakness or two that limits the strength of the field of contenders.
Who Should Win: No one. No one should win. But if you are asking me who I am rooting for, why not Black Panther? It isn’t in the same league with other superhero epics like Dark Knight, Logan, or even Deadpool, but it was a smart take on the Marvel formula, has significant cultural impact, and looks beautiful. In a down year, let’s let it stand in for superhero movies in general.
Who got Snubbed: Why not Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse?
Lead actor:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Who Will Win: Rami Malek! This is the pick that I am pulling for most; I really want him to be recognized. That performance was transformative and I do love the movie. I will watch that film once or twice a year for two reasons: the Queen soundtrack and Malek’s amazing presence. I understand the movie wasn’t a pure Oscar darling, but his performance sure was.
Who Should Win: Malek is the right guy! Oddly, I have NO IDEA what his next film role should be.
Who got Snubbed: Not sure who I would pull, but wouldn’t it have been nice to see Chadwick Boseman in the hunt? As much because he was snubbed in past years for 42 and Get On Up. I guess leading a $700m domestic box office tentpole is reward enough…
Lead actress:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Who Will Win: Glenn Close. I think it is her year for The Wife. Gaga was good in a lot scenes, but there were moments she wasn’t good at all; where it was VERY clear she was trying to act.
Who Should Win: All nominees are fairly even this year, but I would give the nudge to Melissa McCarthy. She showed the level of performance we all knew she had in her when not letting her husband (who was actually decent in a small role here) destroy her career.
Who got Snubbed: No one really. These are the right five. Emily Blunt would have been in my consideration, but for A Quiet Place and not MARY Poppins. I don’t care what Ryan says. “Silence” is not the star of that movie…
Supporting actor:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali will likely take the prize; which is annoying ONLY because he is every bit the lead. That’s a pet peeve of mine but not as annoying here because the man is amazing. He owns every second of his (lead actor) screen time.
Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant was delicious as hustler, Jack. Talk about a guy who came from nowhere. His biggest role before this was a bit player on Game of Thrones.
Who got Snubbed: Timothy Chalamet was bandied about, but his was one of the few films I didn’t see last year, so this list works for me.
Supporting actress:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Who Will Win: Regina King will take this. She was heartbreaking and determined as a mother trying to help her daughter’s beloved. She wins the award in the first scene where she and her family learn their young daughter is pregnant. It was a great scene for all the actors involved, but she still dominated it.
Who Should Win: King deserves the win. This will also mean of the four actors who went on that double date on Jerry Maguire, only Tom Cruise will not have an acting Oscar. This completes me…
Who got Snubbed: Though she may WIN best actress, Olivia Coleman should have been nominated here and had Weisz and Stone vying for Best Actress. Her lead in screen time for The Favourite was simply a result of her serving as the supporting character of TWO leads. She was NOT the lead in this film.
Best director:
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron deserves the directing prize despite my deep hope that the Academy doesn’t give the Oscar to his VERY boring film, Roma.
Who Should Win: Cuaron is the right guy. His work should be studied from a technical perspective for generations. It was o wonderfully shot. That said, the movie is pretentious and boring as hell. The Oscars are under attack for being out of touch with mainstream filmgoers. I typically don’t agree because I DON’T think Adam Sandler has been snubbed over the years, but if this film gets awarded for more than directing and cinematography, I’ll have trouble defending it.
Who got Snubbed: Bradley Cooper is this year’s Ben Affleck.
Animated feature:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. This film was vastly superior to any other film released in the category.
Who Should Win: Spider-Verse! If anyone else wins, the Academy should be disbanded.
Who got Snubbed: There should only be one nominee this year.
Adapted screenplay:
A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
Who Will Win: BlacKkKlansman was a clever and insightful story. The movie and the direction went in odd directions at times, but the script was rock solid.
Who Should Win: BlacKkKlansman deserves recognition.
Who got Snubbed: I wouldn’t have minded seeing some love for Love, Simon.
Original screenplay:
The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Vice (Adam McKay)
Who Will Win: The Favourite needs to get something and this might be the place. I thought the film was fun, but a tad overrated.
Who Should Win: Vice was quirky and original. The screenplay was worthy of recognition and should win from these films.
Who got Snubbed: Bad Times at the El Royale was so unusual and different. It would have been a great inclusion.
Cinematography:
The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
Who Will Win: Roma has this in the bag.
Who Should Win: Roma deserves this trophy as much as any film I’ve seen in the last 20 years other than maybe Birdman.
Best documentary feature:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Who Will Win: Free Solo was in my top ten of the year and it gets better the more I think about it. In a down year for film, docs were rocking and Free Solo was a big reason why.
Who Should Win: Free Solo deserves the prize. I recommend it to documentary and non-documentary fans alike. Even Ryan liked it and he’s quite lowbrow…
Who got Snubbed: TWO big snubs here! How did the presumed front runner Won’t You Be My Neighbor get snubbed? Or the brilliant and watchable Three Identical Strangers. This is the category that snubbed Hoop Dreams many years ago so they are weird.
Best documentary short subject:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
Who Will Win: Black Sheep should take the prize…
Who Should Win: Black Sheep seems to be the way to go.
Animated short:
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
Who Will Win: Bao was the Pixar short in front of The Incredibles and they usually do well here.
Who Should Win: Bao was quite good. There was even some discussion in the Gabbing Geek bullpen about it making Jenny teary eyed.
Best live-action short film:
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Who Will Win: Skin
Who Should Win: Skin. I have no more commentary. Skin speaks for itself!
Best foreign language film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Who Will/Should Win: Roma. But wouldn’t it be funny if Roma won Best Picture but Cold War won Best Foreign film?
Film editing:
BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)
Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)
The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)
Vice (Hank Corwin)
Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody is going to take this prize…simply because my joke about him editing out all the real event and pissing of Jonathan makes me laugh.
Who Should Win: Bohemian. I’m really committed to this Jonathan joke.
Sound editing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
Who Will Win: First Man.
Who Should Win: Bohemian Rhapsody.
Who got Snubbed: You never know because this shit category is such a train wreck. Politics precludes so many folks because they don’t play the game. Scandal!!!
Sound mixing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: A Star Is Born made some really rewarding choices.
Who Should Win: Bohemian Rhapsody is my personal favorite, but great respect to all these folks. A field of pure professionals. Practically SCHOLARS!
Who got Snubbed: No one. This category ALWAYS gets it right. We run a tight ship in Sound Mixing.
Production design:
Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)
The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas)
Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)
Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)
Who Will Win: Black Panther is gorgeous and creates a world that is one of the richest characters in a film with rich characters (despite the mediocre villains).
Who Should Win: Panther has it. Wakanda Forever!
Original score:
Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)
Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)
Who Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk. It was strong.
Who Should Win: Beale Street.
Who got Snubbed: A Quiet Place was snubbed. The use of silence was an amazing score.
Original song:
“All the Stars” (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave, SZA and Anthony Tiffith)
Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA
“I’ll Fight” (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
Performed by Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
Performed by Emily Blunt
“Shallow” (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)
Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
Performed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson
Who Will Win: Shallow has this thing locked up.
Who Should Win: Shallow is the clearest choice in this category since City of Stars beat that Lin Manuel Miranda mediocrity from Moana…
Who Got Snubbed: Why not two other great songs from A Star Is Born: “Is That Alright?” and “Maybe It’s Time”???
Makeup and hair:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Who Will Win: Vice.
Who Should Win: Vice…
Who Got Snubbed: Black Panther! Hair and makeup accented some great designs.
Costume design:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)
The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)
Who Will Win: The Favourite will get this because the Academy LOVES corsets.
Who Should Win: Black Panther. Hands down. The costumes in Wakanda were brilliant.
Visual effects:
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Who Will Win: First Man. It was subtle but really put you in a 1960s capsule.
Who Should Win: Does Infinity War get credit for adding Hulk to the trailer? #Scholars! (Ryan: Oh, nice!)
Who got Snubbed: Aquaman! WTF?
